Bowl or Vial Number Two
Price of Fish
ChatGPT answers
Page published
You said:
ChatGPT said:
If all fish in the oceans disappeared, the price of fish from land-based farms would skyrocket due to the complete loss of wild-caught supply. Here’s a rough breakdown of how prices might be projected:
Factors Influencing the Price Projection:
- Supply Shock:
- The global seafood industry heavily depends on wild-caught fish (~50% of total supply).
- With ocean fish gone, demand would shift entirely to farmed fish, which currently lacks the capacity to compensate.
- Demand Surge:
- Yesterday’s global fish consumption gives us a baseline for how much demand remains.
- With supply dropping dramatically, prices will respond sharply.
- Elasticity of Demand & Substitutes:
- If people switch to alternative proteins (e.g., chicken, beef, plant-based seafood), price increases might be moderated.
- However, if fish is irreplaceable for many diets (e.g., sushi, coastal communities), prices could rise uncontrollably.
Price Projection Formula (Simplified):
P_{today} = P_{yesterday} \times \left(1 + \frac{\text{Expected Demand Increase %} – \text{Supply Reduction %}}{100}\right)Since wild-caught fish accounts for roughly 50% of global supply, its loss means supply is cut by half. If demand remains constant, farmed fish prices could double overnight or even more due to panic buying.
Would you like a more detailed breakdown with estimated figures based on actual fish market data
You said:
ChatGPT said:
If all oceanic fish were to vanish suddenly, the global seafood market would face an unprecedented crisis. The immediate and total loss of wild-caught fish, which currently constitutes about half of the world’s fish supply, would lead to a dramatic surge in demand for farmed fish. This imbalance between supply and demand would inevitably cause a significant increase in the prices of farmed fish.
Current Global Fish Consumption:
- Per Capita Consumption: As of 2019, the global average consumption of fish and other seafood per person reached a record high of 20.5 kilograms.
- Total Consumption: With a global population of approximately 7.8 billion in 2019, this equates to a total consumption of about 160 million tonnes of fish annually.
Current Farmed Fish Production:
- Aquaculture has been on the rise and, as of 2022, global fisheries and aquaculture production reached 223.2 million tonnes, with aquaculture accounting for a significant portion of this total.
Price Implications:
- Immediate Impact: The sudden elimination of wild-caught fish would halve the global fish supply, creating an immediate and substantial supply gap. Given the inelastic nature of food demand, especially for staple proteins, this would likely result in a rapid increase in prices.
- Price Projections: While exact figures are speculative, it’s reasonable to anticipate that prices for farmed fish could double or even triple in the short term due to the sudden supply shock. For instance, if the current price of farmed salmon is approximately $7.28 per kilogram, prices could surge to $14.56 or even $21.84 per kilogram in the immediate aftermath.
Long-Term Considerations:
- Expansion of Aquaculture: In response to sustained high prices, there would be a strong economic incentive to expand aquaculture operations. However, scaling up fish farming is capital-intensive and time-consuming, involving challenges such as securing suitable locations, ensuring sustainable feed supplies, and managing environmental impacts.
- Alternative Proteins: Consumers might shift to alternative protein sources, such as poultry, beef, or plant-based options, which could help mitigate some of the demand pressure on farmed fish. This dietary shift could potentially stabilize prices over time, depending on the adaptability of consumer preferences and the availability of substitutes.
- Technological Innovations: Advancements in aquaculture technology, such as improved feed efficiency, disease control, and genetic selection, could enhance production capacity and reduce costs in the long run, helping to moderate prices.
In summary, the sudden disappearance of oceanic fish would lead to an immediate and substantial increase in farmed fish prices due to the drastic reduction in supply. While market mechanisms and technological advancements may eventually restore equilibrium, the transition would involve significant economic, environmental, and social challenges.
ChatGPT said:
If all oceanic fish were to vanish suddenly, the immediate impact on farmed fish prices would be substantial due to the abrupt loss of wild-caught fish, which currently constitutes about half of the global fish supply. This would create a significant supply-demand imbalance, leading to a sharp increase in prices.
Immediate Price Impact:
- Current Farmed Fish Price: Approximately $7.28 per kilogram.
- Projected Immediate Price Increase: Given the sudden halving of supply, it’s reasonable to anticipate that prices for farmed fish could double or even triple in the short term.
- Doubling: $7.28 × 2 = $14.56 per kilogram.
- Tripling: $7.28 × 3 = $21.84 per kilogram.
Comparison with Average Food Price Increases:
For context, typical annual food price increases are much more modest. For instance, in the United States, food-at-home prices increased by 5% in 2023 compared to 2022, which is higher than the 20-year historical average of 2.5% per year.
However, the hypothetical scenario of losing all oceanic fish represents an unprecedented supply shock, far exceeding normal market fluctuations. Therefore, the immediate doubling or tripling of farmed fish prices would be a direct consequence of this unique situation and not comparable to typical annual food price increases.
Long-Term Considerations:
Over time, market adjustments such as the expansion of aquaculture, shifts in consumer preferences towards alternative proteins, and technological innovations in fish farming could help stabilize prices. However, these adjustments would require significant time and investment, and prices may remain elevated for an extended period.
In summary, while average annual food price increases provide a benchmark for typical market behavior, the sudden disappearance of oceanic fish would lead to an immediate and substantial increase in farmed fish prices, far exceeding normal inflationary trends.
ChatGPT said:
I don’t have direct memory of previous conversations, but I can still calculate the projected price of farmed fish using an average food price increase.
Calculation Approach:
- Base Price of Farmed Fish (Current): $7.28/kg
- Average Annual Food Price Increase: ~2.5% (long-term)
- Higher Recent Inflation Rate: ~5% (as seen in 2023)
If we assume a moderate inflation rate of 3.75% (midpoint of 2.5% and 5%) for food prices:
P2029=P2024×(1+r)tP_{\text{2029}} = P_{\text{2024}} \times (1 + r)^tP2029=P2024×(1+r)tWhere:
- P2024=7.28P_{\text{2024}} = 7.28P2024=7.28
- r=3.75%=0.0375r = 3.75\% = 0.0375r=3.75%=0.0375
- t=5t = 5t=5 (years from 2024 to 2029)
Now, I’ll calculate the projected price.
By August 2029, using an average annual food price increase of 3.75%, the projected price of farmed fish would be approximately $8.75 per kilogram.
You said:
ChatGPT said:
To calculate the average projected price increase across these commodities and apply it to farmed fish prices under the scenario where ocean fish are gone, we will:
- Find the average projected percentage increase from the given values.
- Apply that average increase to the current farmed fish price ($7.28/kg).
- Determine the new projected price of farmed fish by 2029 under extreme market stress.
Now, I’ll compute the average increase and use it to project fish prices.
The average projected price increase across these commodities is 6,495.25%.
Applying this to farmed fish, the projected price by August 2029—if ocean fish were gone—would be approximately $480.13 per kilogram.
You said:
ChatGPT said:
The percentage increase from today’s average price of farmed fish ($7.28/kg) to the projected price of $480.13/kg is 6,495.25%—matching the average increase of the other commodities.
end chat
Therefore the price of fish by the time Bowl or Vial Number Two has happened will have gone up 64.95 times or 6,495.25%
Can you afford that?
Let’s say you don’t rely on the Lord God Almighty and take the “mark of the beast” how long can you afford prices increase of an average of around 100 times or 10,000% today?
This price of 65 times or 6,500% rounded up is on the conservative side. A person should think of price increase of 100-250 times more than they are in February 2025.
Remember relying on the Lord God Almighty is free of charge!
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